Development of an Electronic Algorithm to Target Outpatient Antimicrobial Stewardship Efforts for Acute Bronchitis and Pharyngitis.

2022

ofac273

07/2022

2328-8957

Background: A major challenge for antibiotic stewardship programs is the lack of accurate and accessible electronic data to target interventions. We developed and validated separate electronic algorithms to identify inappropriate antibiotic use for adult outpatients with bronchitis and pharyngitis.

Methods: We used International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision, diagnostic codes to identify patient encounters for acute bronchitis and pharyngitis at outpatient practices between 3/15/17 and 3/14/18. Exclusion criteria included immunocompromising conditions, complex chronic conditions, and concurrent infections. We randomly selected 300 eligible subjects each with bronchitis and pharyngitis. Inappropriate antibiotic use based on chart review served as the gold standard for assessment of the electronic algorithm, which was constructed using only data in the electronic data warehouse. Criteria for appropriate prescribing, choice of antibiotic, and duration were based on established guidelines.

Results: Of 300 subjects with bronchitis, 167 (55.7%) received an antibiotic inappropriately based on chart review. The electronic algorithm demonstrated 100% sensitivity and 95.3% specificity for detection of inappropriate prescribing. Of 300 subjects with pharyngitis, 94 (31.3%) had an incorrect prescribing decision. Among 29 subjects with a positive rapid streptococcal antigen test, 27 (93.1%) received an appropriate antibiotic and 29 (100%) received the correct duration. The electronic algorithm demonstrated very high sensitivity and specificity for all outcomes.

Conclusions: Inappropriate antibiotic prescribing for bronchitis and pharyngitis is common. Electronic algorithms for identifying inappropriate prescribing, antibiotic choice, and duration showed excellent test characteristics. These algorithms could be used to efficiently assess prescribing among practices and individual clinicians. Interventions based on these algorithms should be tested in future work.

10.1093/ofid/ofac273

Open Forum Infect Dis

35854991

SARS-CoV-2 variants associated with vaccine breakthrough in the Delaware Valley through summer 2021.

2021

2021 Oct 20

<p>The severe acute respiratory coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the cause of the global outbreak of COVID-19. Evidence suggests that the virus is evolving to allow efficient spread through the human population, including vaccinated individuals. Here we report a study of viral variants from surveillance of the Delaware Valley, including the city of Philadelphia, and variants infecting vaccinated subjects. We sequenced and analyzed complete viral genomes from 2621 surveillance samples from March 2020 to September 2021 and compared them to genome sequences from 159 vaccine breakthroughs. In the early spring of 2020, all detected variants were of the B.1 and closely related lineages. A mixture of lineages followed, notably including B.1.243 followed by B.1.1.7 (alpha), with other lineages present at lower levels. Later isolations were dominated by B.1.617.2 (delta) and other delta lineages; delta was the exclusive variant present by the last time sampled. To investigate whether any variants appeared preferentially in vaccine breakthroughs, we devised a model based on Bayesian autoregressive moving average logistic multinomial regression to allow rigorous comparison. This revealed that B.1.617.2 (delta) showed three-fold enrichment in vaccine breakthrough cases (odds ratio of 3; 95% credible interval 0.89-11). Viral point substitutions could also be associated with vaccine breakthroughs, notably the N501Y substitution found in the alpha, beta and gamma variants (odds ratio 2.04; 95% credible interval of 1.25-3.18). This study thus provides a detailed picture of viral evolution in the Delaware Valley and a geographically matched analysis of vaccine breakthroughs; it also introduces a rigorous statistical approach to interrogating enrichment of viral variants.</p>

<p><strong>Importance: </strong>SARS-CoV-2 vaccination is highly effective at reducing viral infection, hospitalization and death. However, vaccine breakthrough infections have been widely observed, raising the question of whether particular viral variants or viral mutations are associated with breakthrough. Here we report analysis of 2621 surveillance isolates from xsxpeople diagnosed with COVID-19 in the Delaware Valley in South Eastern Pennsylvania, allowing rigorous comparison to 159 vaccine breakthrough case specimens. Our best estimate is a three-fold enrichment for some lineages of delta among breakthroughs, and enrichment of a notable spike substitution, N501Y. We introduce statistical methods that should be widely useful for evaluating vaccine breakthroughs and other viral phenotypes.</p>

10.1101/2021.10.18.21264623

medRxiv

34704098

SARS-CoV-2 Variants Associated with Vaccine Breakthrough in the Delaware Valley through Summer 2021.

2022

e0378821

2022 Feb 08

2150-7511

<p>The severe acute respiratory coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the cause of the global outbreak of COVID-19. Evidence suggests that the virus is evolving to allow efficient spread through the human population, including vaccinated individuals. Here, we report a study of viral variants from surveillance of the Delaware Valley, including the city of Philadelphia, and variants infecting vaccinated subjects. We sequenced and analyzed complete viral genomes from 2621 surveillance samples from March 2020 to September 2021 and compared them to genome sequences from 159 vaccine breakthroughs. In the early spring of 2020, all detected variants were of the B.1 and closely related lineages. A mixture of lineages followed, notably including B.1.243 followed by B.1.1.7 (alpha), with other lineages present at lower levels. Later isolations were dominated by B.1.617.2 (delta) and other delta lineages; delta was the exclusive variant present by the last time sampled. To investigate whether any variants appeared preferentially in vaccine breakthroughs, we devised a model based on Bayesian autoregressive moving average logistic multinomial regression to allow rigorous comparison. This revealed that B.1.617.2 (delta) showed 3-fold enrichment in vaccine breakthrough cases (odds ratio of 3; 95% credible interval 0.89-11). Viral point substitutions could also be associated with vaccine breakthroughs, notably the N501Y substitution found in the alpha, beta and gamma variants (odds ratio 2.04; 95% credible interval of1.25-3.18). This study thus overviews viral evolution and vaccine breakthroughs in the Delaware Valley and introduces a rigorous statistical approach to interrogating enrichment of breakthrough variants against a changing background. SARS-CoV-2 vaccination is highly effective at reducing viral infection, hospitalization and death. However, vaccine breakthrough infections have been widely observed, raising the question of whether particular viral variants or viral mutations are associated with breakthrough. Here, we report analysis of 2621 surveillance isolates from people diagnosed with COVID-19 in the Delaware Valley in southeastern Pennsylvania, allowing rigorous comparison to 159 vaccine breakthrough case specimens. Our best estimate is a 3-fold enrichment for some lineages of delta among breakthroughs, and enrichment of a notable spike substitution, N501Y. We introduce statistical methods that should be widely useful for evaluating vaccine breakthroughs and other viral phenotypes.</p>

10.1128/mbio.03788-21

mBio

34704098

Improving Outpatient Antibiotic Prescribing for Respiratory Tract Infections in Primary Care; a Stepped-Wedge Cluster Randomized Trial.

2021

2021 Jul 02

1537-6591

<p><strong>BACKGROUND: </strong>Inappropriate antibiotic prescribing is common in primary care (PC), particularly for respiratory tract diagnoses (RTDs). However, the optimal approach for improving prescribing remains unknown.</p>

<p><strong>METHODS: </strong>We conducted a stepped-wedge study in PC practices within a health system to assess the impact of a provider-targeted intervention on antibiotic prescribing for RTDs. RTDs were grouped into tiers based on appropriateness of antibiotic prescribing: tier 1 (almost always indicated), tier 2 (may be indicated), and tier 3 (rarely indicated). Providers received education on appropriate RTD prescribing followed by monthly peer comparison feedback on antibiotic prescribing for (1) all tiers and (2) tier 3 RTDs. Chi-squared testing was used to compare the proportion of visits with antibiotic prescriptions before and during the intervention. Mixed-effects multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to assess the association between the intervention and antibiotic prescribing.</p>

<p><strong>RESULTS: </strong>Across 30 PC practices and 185,755 total visits, overall antibiotic prescribing was reduced with the intervention, from 35.2% to 23.0% of visits (p&lt;0.001). In multivariable analysis, the intervention was associated with a reduced odds of antibiotic prescription for tiers 2 (OR 0.57; 95% CI 0.52 - 0.62) and 3 (OR 0.57; 95% CI 0.53 - 0.61), but not for tier 1 (OR 0.98; 95% CI 0.83 - 1.16).</p>

<p><strong>CONCLUSION: </strong>A provider-focused intervention reduced overall antibiotic prescribing for RTDs without affecting prescribing for infections that likely require antibiotics. Future research should examine the sustainability of such interventions, potential unintended adverse effects on patient health or satisfaction, and provider perceptions and acceptability.</p>

10.1093/cid/ciab602

Clin Infect Dis

34212177