First name
Antonio
Last name
Gasparrini

Title

Association of Social Distancing, Population Density, and Temperature With the Instantaneous Reproduction Number of SARS-CoV-2 in Counties Across the United States.

Year of Publication

2020

Number of Pages

e2016099

Date Published

2020 Jul 01

ISSN Number

2574-3805

Abstract

<p><strong>Importance: </strong>Local variation in the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) across the United States has not been well studied.</p>

<p><strong>Objective: </strong>To examine the association of county-level factors with variation in the SARS-CoV-2 reproduction number over time.</p>

<p><strong>Design, Setting, and Participants: </strong>This cohort study included 211 counties, representing state capitals and cities with at least 100 000 residents and including 178 892 208 US residents, in 46 states and the District of Columbia between February 25, 2020, and April 23, 2020.</p>

<p><strong>Exposures: </strong>Social distancing, measured by percentage change in visits to nonessential businesses; population density; and daily wet-bulb temperatures.</p>

<p><strong>Main Outcomes and Measures: </strong>Instantaneous reproduction number (Rt), or cases generated by each incident case at a given time, estimated from daily case incidence data.</p>

<p><strong>Results: </strong>The 211 counties contained 178 892 208 of 326 289 971 US residents (54.8%). Median (interquartile range) population density was 1022.7 (471.2-1846.0) people per square mile. The mean (SD) peak reduction in visits to nonessential business between April 6 and April 19, as the country was sheltering in place, was 68.7% (7.9%). Median (interquartile range) daily wet-bulb temperatures were 7.5 (3.8-12.8) °C. Median (interquartile range) case incidence and fatality rates per 100 000 people were approximately 10 times higher for the top decile of densely populated counties (1185.2 [313.2-1891.2] cases; 43.7 [10.4-106.7] deaths) than for counties in the lowest density quartile (121.4 [87.8-175.4] cases; 4.2 [1.9-8.0] deaths). Mean (SD) Rt in the first 2 weeks was 5.7 (2.5) in the top decile compared with 3.1 (1.2) in the lowest quartile. In multivariable analysis, a 50% decrease in visits to nonessential businesses was associated with a 45% decrease in Rt (95% CI, 43%-49%). From a relative Rt at 0 °C of 2.13 (95% CI, 1.89-2.40), relative Rt decreased to a minimum as temperatures warmed to 11 °C, increased between 11 and 20 °C (1.61; 95% CI, 1.42-1.84) and then declined again at temperatures greater than 20 °C. With a 70% reduction in visits to nonessential business, 202 counties (95.7%) were estimated to fall below a threshold Rt of 1.0, including 17 of 21 counties (81.0%) in the top density decile and 52 of 53 counties (98.1%) in the lowest density quartile.2.</p>

<p><strong>Conclusions and Relevance: </strong>In this cohort study, social distancing, lower population density, and temperate weather were associated with a decreased Rt for SARS-CoV-2 in counties across the United States. These associations could inform selective public policy planning in communities during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic.</p>

DOI

10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.16099

Alternate Title

JAMA Netw Open

PMID

32701162

Title

Daily mean temperature and clinical kidney stone presentation in five U.S. metropolitan areas: a time-series analysis.

Year of Publication

2014

Number of Pages

1081-7

Date Published

2014 Oct

ISSN Number

1552-9924

Abstract

<p><strong>BACKGROUND: </strong>High ambient temperatures are a risk factor for nephrolithiasis, but the precise relationship between temperature and kidney stone presentation is unknown.</p>

<p><strong>OBJECTIVES: </strong>Our objective was to estimate associations between mean daily temperature and kidney stone presentation according to lag time and temperatures.</p>

<p><strong>METHODS: </strong>Using a time-series design and distributed lag nonlinear models, we estimated the relative risk (RR) of kidney stone presentation associated with mean daily temperatures, including cumulative RR for a 20-day period, and RR for individual daily lags through 20 days. Our analysis used data from the MarketScan Commercial Claims database for 60,433 patients who sought medical evaluation or treatment of kidney stones from 2005-2011 in the U.S. cities of Atlanta, Georgia; Chicago, Illinois; Dallas, Texas; Los Angeles, California; and Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.</p>

<p><strong>RESULTS: </strong>Associations between mean daily temperature and kidney stone presentation were not monotonic, and there was variation in the exposure-response curve shapes and the strength of associations at different temperatures. However, in most cases RRs increased for temperatures above the reference value of 10°C. The cumulative RR for a daily mean temperature of 30°C versus 10°C was 1.38 in Atlanta (95% CI: 1.07, 1.79), 1.37 in Chicago (95% CI: 1.07, 1.76), 1.36 in Dallas (95% CI: 1.10, 1.69), 1.11 in Los Angeles (95% CI: 0.73, 1.68), and 1.47 in Philadelphia (95% CI: 1.00, 2.17). Kidney stone presentations also were positively associated with temperatures &lt; 2°C in Atlanta, and &lt; 10°C in Chicago and Philadelphia. In four cities, the strongest association between kidney stone presentation and a daily mean temperature of 30°C versus 10°C was estimated for lags of ≤ 3 days.</p>

<p><strong>CONCLUSIONS: </strong>In general, kidney stone presentations increased with higher daily mean temperatures, with the strongest associations estimated for lags of only a few days. These findings further support an adverse effect of high temperatures on nephrolithiasis.</p>

DOI

10.1289/ehp.1307703

Alternate Title

Environ. Health Perspect.

PMID

25009122

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