Fetal growth and gestational age improve outcome predictions in neonatal heart surgery.

2022

05/2022

1097-685X

OBJECTIVE: Current risk adjustment models for congenital heart surgery do not fully incorporate multiple factors unique to neonates such as granular gestational age (GA) and birth weight (BW) z score data. This study sought to develop a Neonatal Risk Adjustment Model for congenital heart surgery to address these deficiencies.

METHODS: Cohort study of neonates undergoing cardiothoracic surgery during the neonatal period captured in the Pediatric Cardiac Critical Care Consortium database between 2014 and 2020. Candidate predictors were included in the model if they were associated with mortality in the univariate analyses. GA and BW z score were both added as multicategory variables. Mortality probabilities were predicted for different GA and BW z scores while keeping all other variables at their mean value.

RESULTS: The C statistic for the mortality model was 0.8097 (95% confidence interval, 0.7942-0.8255) with excellent calibration. Mortality prediction for a neonate at 40 weeks GA and a BW z score 0 to 1 was 3.5% versus 9.8% for the same neonate at 37 weeks GA and a BW z score -2 to -1. For preterm infants the mortality prediction at 34 to 36 weeks with a BW z score 0 to 1 was 10.6%, whereas it was 36.1% for the same infant at <32 weeks with a BW z score of -2 to -1.

CONCLUSIONS: This Neonatal Risk Adjustment Model incorporates more granular data on GA and adds the novel risk factor BW z score. These 2 factors refine mortality predictions compared with traditional risk models. It may be used to compare outcomes across centers for the neonatal population.

10.1016/j.jtcvs.2022.05.022

J Thorac Cardiovasc Surg

35750509

Predicting and Surviving Prolonged Critical Illness After Congenital Heart Surgery.

2020

e557-e564

2020 Jul

1530-0293

<p><strong>OBJECTIVES: </strong>Prolonged critical illness after congenital heart surgery disproportionately harms patients and the healthcare system, yet much remains unknown. We aimed to define prolonged critical illness, delineate between nonmodifiable and potentially preventable predictors of prolonged critical illness and prolonged critical illness mortality, and understand the interhospital variation in prolonged critical illness.</p>

<p><strong>DESIGN: </strong>Observational analysis.</p>

<p><strong>SETTING: </strong>Pediatric Cardiac Critical Care Consortium clinical registry.</p>

<p><strong>PATIENTS: </strong>All patients, stratified into neonates (≤28 d) and nonneonates (29 d to 18 yr), admitted to the pediatric cardiac ICU after congenital heart surgery at Pediatric Cardiac Critical Care Consortium hospitals.</p>

<p><strong>INTERVENTIONS: </strong>None.</p>

<p><strong>MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: </strong>There were 2,419 neonates and 10,687 nonneonates from 22 hospitals. The prolonged critical illness cutoff (90th percentile length of stay) was greater than or equal to 35 and greater than or equal to 10 days for neonates and nonneonates, respectively. Cardiac ICU prolonged critical illness mortality was 24% in neonates and 8% in nonneonates (vs 5% and 0.4%, respectively, in nonprolonged critical illness patients). Multivariable logistic regression identified 10 neonatal and 19 nonneonatal prolonged critical illness predictors within strata and eight predictors of mortality. Only mechanical ventilation days and acute renal failure requiring renal replacement therapy predicted prolonged critical illness and prolonged critical illness mortality in both strata. Approximately 40% of the prolonged critical illness predictors were nonmodifiable (preoperative/patient and operative factors), whereas only one of eight prolonged critical illness mortality predictors was nonmodifiable. The remainders were potentially preventable (postoperative critical care delivery variables and complications). Case-mix-adjusted prolonged critical illness rates were compared across hospitals; six hospitals each had lower- and higher-than-expected prolonged critical illness frequency.</p>

<p><strong>CONCLUSIONS: </strong>Although many prolonged critical illness predictors are nonmodifiable, we identified several predictors to target for improvement. Furthermore, we observed that complications and prolonged critical care therapy drive prolonged critical illness mortality. Wide variation of prolonged critical illness frequency suggests that identifying practices at hospitals with lower-than-expected prolonged critical illness could lead to broader quality improvement initiatives.</p>

10.1097/CCM.0000000000004354

Crit. Care Med.

32574468

Epidemiology and Outcomes of Acute Decompensated Heart Failure in Children.

2020

e006101

2020 Apr

1941-3297

<p><strong>BACKGROUND: </strong>Acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) is a highly morbid condition among adults. Little is known about outcomes in children with ADHF. We analyzed the Pediatric Cardiac Critical Care Consortium registry to determine the epidemiology, contemporary treatments, and predictors of mortality in critically ill children with ADHF.</p>

<p><strong>METHODS: </strong>Cardiac intensive care unit (CICU) patients ≤18 years of age meeting Pediatric Cardiac Critical Care Consortium criteria for ADHF were included. ADHF was defined as systolic or diastolic dysfunction requiring continuous vasoactive or diuretic infusion, respiratory support, or mechanical circulatory support. Demographics, diagnosis, therapies, complications, and mortality are described for the cohort. Predictors of CICU mortality were identified using logistic regression.</p>

<p><strong>RESULTS: </strong>Among 26 294 consecutive admissions (23 centers), 1494 (6%) met criteria for analysis. Median age was 0.93 years (interquartile range, 0.1-9.3 years). Patients with congenital heart disease (CHD) comprised 57% of the cohort. Common therapies included the following: vasoactive infusions (88%), central venous catheters (86%), mechanical ventilation (59%), and high flow nasal cannula (46%). Common complications were arrhythmias (19%), cardiac arrest (10%), sepsis (7%), and acute renal failure requiring dialysis (3%). Median length of CICU stay was 7.9 days (interquartile range, 3-18 days) and the CICU readmission rate was 22%. Overall, CICU mortality was 15% although higher for patients with CHD versus non-CHD (19% versus 11%; &lt;0.001). Independent risk factors associated with CICU mortality included age &lt;30 days, CHD, vasoactive infusions, ventricular tachycardia, mechanical ventilation, sepsis, pulmonary hypertension, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, and cardiac arrest.</p>

<p><strong>CONCLUSIONS: </strong>ADHF in children is characterized by comorbidities, high mortality rates, and frequent readmission, especially among patients with CHD. Opportunities exist to determine best practices around appropriate use of mechanical support, cardiac arrest prevention, and optimal heart transplantation candidacy to improve outcomes for these patients.</p>

10.1161/CIRCHEARTFAILURE.119.006101

Circ Heart Fail

32301336