Development and validation of age-specific risk prediction models for primary ovarian insufficiency in long-term survivors of childhood cancer: a report from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study and St Jude Lifetime Cohort.

2023

11/2023

1474-5488

BACKGROUND: Female survivors of childhood cancer are at risk for primary ovarian insufficiency (POI), defined as the cessation of gonadal function before the age of 40 years. We aimed to develop and validate models to predict age-specific POI risk among long-term survivors of childhood cancer.

METHODS: To develop models to predict age-specific POI risk for the ages of 21-40 years, we used data from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (CCSS). Female survivors aged 18 years or older at their latest follow-up, with self-reported menstrual history information and free of subsequent malignant neoplasms within 5 years of diagnosis, were included. We evaluated models that used algorithms based on statistical or machine learning to consider all predictors, including cancer treatments. Cross-validated prediction performance metrics (eg, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC]) were compared to select the best-performing models. For external validation of the models, we used data from 5-year survivors in the St Jude Lifetime Cohort (SJLIFE) with ovarian status clinically ascertained using hormone measurements (menopause defined by follicle stimulating hormone >30 mIU/mL and oestradiol

FINDINGS: 7891 female CCSS survivors (922 with POI) were included in the development of the POI risk prediction model, and 1349 female SJLIFE survivors (101 with POI) were included in the validation study. Median follow-up from cancer diagnosis was 23·7 years (IQR 18·3-30·0) in CCSS and 15·1 years (10·4-22·9) in SJLIFE. Between the ages of 21 and 40 years, POI prevalence increased from 7·9% (95% CI 7·3-8·5) to 18·6% (17·3-20·0) in CCSS and 7·3% (5·8-8·9) to 14·9% (11·6-19·1) in SJLIFE. Age-specific logistic regression models considering ovarian radiation dosimetry or prescribed pelvic and abdominal radiation dose, along with individual chemotherapy predictors, performed well in CCSS. In the SJLIFE validation, the prescribed radiation dose model performed well (AUROC 0·88-0·95), as did a simpler model that considered any exposures to pelvic or abdominal radiotherapy or alkylators (0·82-0·90). Addition of the polygenic risk predictor significantly improved the average positive predictive value (from 0·76 [95% CI 0·63-0·89] to 0·87 [0·80-0·94]; p=0·029) among CCSS survivors treated with ovarian radiation and chemotherapy.

INTERPRETATION: POI risk prediction models using treatment information showed robust prediction performance in adult survivors of childhood cancer.

FUNDING: Canadian Institutes of Health Research, US National Cancer Institute.

10.1016/S1470-2045(23)00510-7

Lancet Oncol

37972608

Late Health Outcomes Among Survivors of Wilms Tumor Diagnosed Over Three Decades: A Report From the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study.

2023

2638-2650

05/2023

1527-7755

PURPOSE: To evaluate long-term morbidity and mortality among unilateral, nonsyndromic Wilms tumor (WT) survivors according to conventional treatment regimens.

METHODS: Cumulative incidence of late mortality (≥ 5 years from diagnosis) and chronic health conditions (CHCs) were evaluated in WT survivors from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study. Outcomes were evaluated by treatment, including nephrectomy combined with vincristine and actinomycin D (VA), VA + doxorubicin + abdominal radiotherapy (VAD + ART), VAD + ART + whole lung radiotherapy, or receipt of ≥ 4 chemotherapy agents.

RESULTS: Among 2,008 unilateral WT survivors, 142 deaths occurred (standardized mortality ratio, 2.9, 95% CI, 2.5 to 3.5; 35-year cumulative incidence of death, 7.8%, 95% CI, 6.3 to 9.2). The 35-year cumulative incidence of any grade 3-5 CHC was 34.1% (95% CI, 30.7 to 37.5; rate ratio [RR] compared with siblings 3.0, 95% CI, 2.6 to 3.5). Survivors treated with VA alone had comparable risk for all-cause late mortality relative to the general population (standardized mortality ratio, 1.0; 95% CI, 0.5 to 1.7) and modestly increased risk for grade 3-5 CHCs compared with siblings (RR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.1 to 2.0), but remained at increased risk for intestinal obstruction (RR, 9.4; 95% CI, 3.9 to 22.2) and kidney failure (RR, 11.9; 95% CI, 4.2 to 33.6). Magnitudes of risk for grade 3-5 CHCs, including intestinal obstruction, kidney failure, premature ovarian insufficiency, and heart failure, increased by treatment group intensity.

CONCLUSION: With approximately 40% of patients with newly diagnosed WT currently treated with VA alone, the burden of late mortality/morbidity in future decades is projected to be lower than that for survivors from earlier eras. Nevertheless, the risk of late effects such as intestinal obstruction and kidney failure was elevated across all treatment groups, and there was a dose-dependent increase in risk for all grade 3-5 CHCs by treatment group intensity.

10.1200/JCO.22.02111

J Clin Oncol

36693221

Dexrazoxane and Long-Term Heart Function in Survivors of Childhood Cancer.

2023

2248-2257

04/2023

1527-7755

PURPOSE: For survivors of childhood cancer treated with doxorubicin, dexrazoxane is cardioprotective for at least 5 years. However, longer-term data are lacking.

METHODS: Within the Children's Oncology Group and the Dana Farber Cancer Institute's Childhood Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia Consortium, we evaluated four randomized trials of children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia or Hodgkin lymphoma, who received doxorubicin with or without dexrazoxane, and a nonrandomized trial of patients with osteosarcoma who all received doxorubicin with dexrazoxane. Cumulative doxorubicin doses ranged from 100 to 600 mg/m across these five trials, and dexrazoxane was administered uniformly (10:1 mg/m ratio) as an intravenous bolus before doxorubicin. Cardiac function was prospectively assessed in survivors from these trials, plus a matched group of survivors of osteosarcoma treated with doxorubicin without dexrazoxane. Two-dimensional echocardiograms and blood biomarkers were analyzed centrally in blinded fashion. Multivariate analyses adjusted for demographic characteristics, cumulative doxorubicin dose, and chest radiotherapy determined the differences and associations by dexrazoxane status.

RESULTS: From 49 participating institutions, 195 participants were assessed at 18.1 ± 2.7 years since cancer diagnosis (51% dexrazoxane-exposed; cumulative doxorubicin dose 297 ± 91 mg/m). Dexrazoxane administration was associated with superior left ventricular fractional shortening (absolute difference, +1.4% [95% CI, 0.3 to 2.5]) and ejection fraction (absolute difference, +1.6% [95% CI, 0.0 to 3.2]), and lower myocardial stress per B-type natriuretic peptide (-6.7 pg/mL [95% CI, -10.6 to -2.8]). Dexrazoxane was associated with a reduced risk of having lower left ventricular function (fractional shortening < 30% or ejection fraction < 50%; odds ratio, 0.24 [95% CI, 0.07 to 0.81]). This protective association was primarily seen in those treated with cumulative doxorubicin doses ≥ 250 mg/m.

CONCLUSION: Among young adult-aged survivors of childhood cancer, dexrazoxane was associated with a cardioprotective effect nearly 20 years after initial anthracycline exposure.

10.1200/JCO.22.02423

J Clin Oncol

36669148

Late Health Outcomes Among Survivors of Wilms Tumor Diagnosed Over Three Decades: A Report From the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study.

2023

JCO2202111

01/2023

1527-7755

PURPOSE: To evaluate long-term morbidity and mortality among unilateral, nonsyndromic Wilms tumor (WT) survivors according to conventional treatment regimens.

METHODS: Cumulative incidence of late mortality (≥ 5 years from diagnosis) and chronic health conditions (CHCs) were evaluated in WT survivors from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study. Outcomes were evaluated by treatment, including nephrectomy combined with vincristine and actinomycin D (VA), VA + doxorubicin + abdominal radiotherapy (VAD + ART), VAD + ART + whole lung radiotherapy, or receipt of ≥ 4 chemotherapy agents.

RESULTS: Among 2,008 unilateral WT survivors, 142 deaths occurred (standardized mortality ratio, 2.9, 95% CI, 2.5 to 3.5; 35-year cumulative incidence of death, 7.8%, 95% CI, 6.3 to 9.2). The 35-year cumulative incidence of any grade 3-5 CHC was 34.1% (95% CI, 30.7 to 37.5; rate ratio [RR] compared with siblings 3.0, 95% CI, 2.6 to 3.5). Survivors treated with VA alone had comparable risk for all-cause late mortality relative to the general population (standardized mortality ratio, 1.0; 95% CI, 0.5 to 1.7) and modestly increased risk for grade 3-5 CHCs compared with siblings (RR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.1 to 2.0), but remained at increased risk for intestinal obstruction (RR, 9.4; 95% CI, 3.9 to 22.2) and kidney failure (RR, 11.9; 95% CI, 4.2 to 33.6). Magnitudes of risk for grade 3-5 CHCs, including intestinal obstruction, kidney failure, premature ovarian insufficiency, and heart failure, increased by treatment group intensity.

CONCLUSION: With approximately 40% of patients with newly diagnosed WT currently treated with VA alone, the burden of late mortality/morbidity in future decades is projected to be lower than that for survivors from earlier eras. Nevertheless, the risk of late effects such as intestinal obstruction and kidney failure was elevated across all treatment groups, and there was a dose-dependent increase in risk for all grade 3-5 CHCs by treatment group intensity.

10.1200/JCO.22.02111

J Clin Oncol

36693221

A Population-Based Study of the Long-Term Risk of Infections Associated With Hospitalization in Childhood Cancer Survivors.

2023

364-372

01/2023

1527-7755

PURPOSE: Infections pose a significant risk during therapy for childhood cancer. However, little is known about the risk of infection in long-term survivors of childhood cancer.

METHODS: We performed a retrospective observational study of children and adolescents born in Washington State diagnosed with cancer before age 20 years and who survived at least 5 years after diagnosis. Survivors were categorized as having a hematologic or nonhematologic malignancy and were matched to individuals without cancer in the state birth records by birth year and sex with a comparator:survivor ratio of 10:1. The primary outcome was incidence of any infection associated with a hospitalization using diagnostic codes from state hospital discharge records. Incidence was reported as a rate (IR) per 1,000 person-years. Multivariate Poisson regression was used to calculate incidence rate ratios (IRR) for cancer survivors versus comparators.

RESULTS: On the basis of 382 infection events among 3,152 survivors and 771 events among 31,519 comparators, the IR of all hospitalized infections starting 5 years after cancer diagnosis was 12.6 (95% CI, 11.4 to 13.9) and 2.4 (95% CI, 2.3 to 2.6), respectively, with an IRR 5.1 (95% CI, 4.5 to 5.8). The survivor IR during the 5- to 10-year (18.1, 95% CI, 15.9 to 20.5) and > 10-year postcancer diagnosis (8.3, 95% CI, 7.0 to 9.7) periods remained greater than comparison group IRs for the same time periods (2.3, 95% CI, 2.1 to 2.6 and 2.5, 95% CI, 2.3 to 2.8, respectively). When potentially vaccine-preventable infections were evaluated, survivors had a greater risk of infection relative to comparators (IRR, 13.1; 95% CI, 7.2 to 23.9).

CONCLUSION: Infectious complications continue to affect survivors of childhood cancer many years after initial diagnosis. Future studies are needed to better understand immune reconstitution to determine specific factors that may mitigate this risk.

10.1200/JCO.22.00230

J Clin Oncol

35878085

A Population-Based Study of the Long-Term Risk of Infections Associated With Hospitalization in Childhood Cancer Survivors.

2022

JCO2200230

07/2022

1527-7755

PURPOSE: Infections pose a significant risk during therapy for childhood cancer. However, little is known about the risk of infection in long-term survivors of childhood cancer.

METHODS: We performed a retrospective observational study of children and adolescents born in Washington State diagnosed with cancer before age 20 years and who survived at least 5 years after diagnosis. Survivors were categorized as having a hematologic or nonhematologic malignancy and were matched to individuals without cancer in the state birth records by birth year and sex with a comparator:survivor ratio of 10:1. The primary outcome was incidence of any infection associated with a hospitalization using diagnostic codes from state hospital discharge records. Incidence was reported as a rate (IR) per 1,000 person-years. Multivariate Poisson regression was used to calculate incidence rate ratios (IRR) for cancer survivors versus comparators.

RESULTS: On the basis of 382 infection events among 3,152 survivors and 771 events among 31,519 comparators, the IR of all hospitalized infections starting 5 years after cancer diagnosis was 12.6 (95% CI, 11.4 to 13.9) and 2.4 (95% CI, 2.3 to 2.6), respectively, with an IRR 5.1 (95% CI, 4.5 to 5.8). The survivor IR during the 5- to 10-year (18.1, 95% CI, 15.9 to 20.5) and > 10-year postcancer diagnosis (8.3, 95% CI, 7.0 to 9.7) periods remained greater than comparison group IRs for the same time periods (2.3, 95% CI, 2.1 to 2.6 and 2.5, 95% CI, 2.3 to 2.8, respectively). When potentially vaccine-preventable infections were evaluated, survivors had a greater risk of infection relative to comparators (IRR, 13.1; 95% CI, 7.2 to 23.9).

CONCLUSION: Infectious complications continue to affect survivors of childhood cancer many years after initial diagnosis. Future studies are needed to better understand immune reconstitution to determine specific factors that may mitigate this risk.

10.1200/JCO.22.00230

J Clin Oncol

35878085

Late health outcomes after dexrazoxane treatment: A report from the Children's Oncology Group.

2021

2021 Oct 13

1097-0142

<p><strong>BACKGROUND: </strong>The objective of this study was to examine long-term outcomes among children newly diagnosed with cancer who were treated in dexrazoxane-containing clinical trials.</p>

<p><strong>METHODS: </strong>P9404 (acute lymphoblastic leukemia/lymphoma [ALL]), P9425 and P9426 (Hodgkin lymphoma), P9754 (osteosarcoma), and Dana-Farber Cancer Institute 95-01 (ALL) enrolled 1308 patients between 1996 and 2001: 1066 were randomized (1:1) to doxorubicin with or without dexrazoxane, and 242 (from P9754) were nonrandomly assigned to receive dexrazoxane. Trial data were linked with the National Death Index, the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network, the Pediatric Health Information System (PHIS), and Medicaid. Osteosarcoma survivors from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (CCSS; n&nbsp;=&nbsp;495; no dexrazoxane) served as comparators in subanalyses. Follow-up events were assessed with cumulative incidence, Cox regression, and Fine-Gray methods.</p>

<p><strong>RESULTS: </strong>In randomized trials (cumulative prescribed doxorubicin dose, 100-360&nbsp;mg/m ; median follow-up, 18.6&nbsp;years), dexrazoxane was not associated with relapse (hazard ratio [HR], 0.84; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.63-1.13), second cancers (HR, 1.19; 95% CI, 0.62-2.30), all-cause mortality (HR, 1.07; 95% CI, 0.78-1.47), or cardiovascular mortality (HR, 1.45; 95% CI, 0.41-5.16). Among P9754 patients (all exposed to dexrazoxane; cumulative doxorubicin, 450-600&nbsp;mg/m ; median follow-up, 16.6-18.4&nbsp;years), no cardiovascular deaths or heart transplantation occurred. The 20-year heart transplantation rate among CCSS osteosarcoma survivors (mean doxorubicin, 377&nbsp;±&nbsp;145&nbsp;mg/m ) was 1.6% (vs 0% in P9754; P&nbsp;=&nbsp;.13). Among randomized patients, serious cardiovascular outcomes (cardiomyopathy, ischemic heart disease, and stroke) ascertained by PHIS/Medicaid occurred less commonly with dexrazoxane (5.6%) than without it (17.6%; P&nbsp;=&nbsp;.02), although cardiomyopathy rates alone did not differ (4.4% vs 8.1%; P&nbsp;=&nbsp;.35).</p>

<p><strong>CONCLUSIONS: </strong>Dexrazoxane did not appear to adversely affect long-term mortality, event-free survival, or second cancer risk.</p>

10.1002/cncr.33974

Cancer

34644414

Radiation Dose and Volume to the Pancreas and Subsequent Risk of Diabetes Mellitus.

2019

2019 Jul 22

1460-2105

<p><strong>BACKGROUND: </strong>Childhood cancer survivors exposed to abdominal radiation (abdRT) are at increased risk for diabetes mellitus but the association between risk and radiation dose and volume is unclear.</p>

<p><strong>METHODS: </strong>Participants included 20,762 five-year survivors of childhood cancer (4,568 exposed to abdRT) and 4,853 siblings. For abdRT, we estimated maximum dose to abdomen, mean doses for whole pancreas, pancreatic head, body, tail, and percent pancreas volume receiving ≥10, ≥20, and ≥30Gy. Relative risks (RRs) were estimated with a Poisson model using generalized estimating equations, adjusted for attained age. All statistical tests were two-sided.</p>

<p><strong>RESULTS: </strong>Survivors exposed to abdRT (median age=31.6 years, range=10.2-58.3) were 2.92-fold more likely than siblings (95% confidence interval [CI]=2.02 to 4.23) and 1.60-times more likely than survivors not exposed to abdRT (95%CI=1.24 to 2.05) to develop diabetes. Among survivors treated with abdRT, greater attained age (RR(per 10 years)=2.11, 95%CI=1.70 to 2.62), higher body mass index (RR(BMI 30+)=5.00, 95%CI=3.19 to 7.83 with reference(BMI 18.5-24.9)), and increasing pancreatic tail dose were associated with increased diabetes risk in a multivariable model; an interaction was identified between younger age at cancer diagnosis and pancreatic tail dose with much higher diabetes risk associated with increasing pancreatic tail dose among those diagnosed at the youngest ages (p&lt;.001). Radiation dose and volume to other regions of the pancreas were not statistically significantly associated with risk.</p>

<p><strong>CONCLUSIONS: </strong>Among survivors treated with abdRT, diabetes risk was associated with higher pancreatic tail dose, especially at younger ages. Targeted interventions are needed to improve cardiometabolic health among those at highest risk.</p>

10.1093/jnci/djz152

J. Natl. Cancer Inst.

31329225

Temporal patterns in the risk of chronic health conditions in survivors of childhood cancer diagnosed 1970-99: a report from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study cohort.

2018

2018 Nov 08

1474-5488

<p><strong>BACKGROUND: </strong>Treatments for childhood cancer have evolved over the past 50 years, with the goal of maximising the proportion of patients who achieve long-term survival, while minimising the adverse effects of therapy. We aimed to assess incidence patterns of serious chronic health conditions in long-term survivors of childhood cancer across three decades of diagnosis and treatment.</p>

<p><strong>METHODS: </strong>We used data from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study, a retrospective cohort with longitudinal follow-up of 5-year survivors of common childhood cancers (leukaemia, tumours of the CNS, Hodgkin lymphoma, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, Wilms tumour, neuroblastoma, soft tissue sarcoma, or bone tumours) who were diagnosed before the age of 21 years and from 1970 to 1999 in North America. We examined the cumulative incidence of severe to fatal chronic health conditions occurring up to 20 years post-diagnosis among survivors, compared by diagnosis decade. We used multivariable regression models to estimate hazard ratios per diagnosis decade, and we added treatment variables to assess whether treatment changes attenuated associations between diagnosis decade and chronic disease risk.</p>

<p><strong>FINDINGS: </strong>Among 23 601 survivors with a median follow-up of 21 years (IQR 15-25), the 20-year cumulative incidence of at least one grade 3-5 chronic condition decreased significantly from 33·2% (95% CI 32·0-34·3) in those diagnosed 1970-79 to 29·3% (28·4-30·2; p&lt;0·0001) in 1980-89, and 27·5% (26·4-28·6; p=0·012 vs 1980-89) in 1990-99. By comparison, the 20-year cumulative incidence of at least one grade 3-5 condition in 5051 siblings was 4·6% (95% CI 3·9-5·2). The 15-year cumulative incidence of at least one grade 3-5 condition was lower for survivors diagnosed 1990-99 compared with those diagnosed 1970-79 for Hodgkin lymphoma (17·7% [95% CI 15·0-20·5] vs 26·4% [23·8-29·1]; p&lt;0·0001), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (16·9% [14·0-19·7] vs 23·8% [19·9-27·7]; p=0.0053), astrocytoma (30·5% [27·8-33·2] vs 47·3% [42·9-51·7]; p&lt;0·0001), Wilms tumour (11·9% [9·5-14·3] vs 17·6% [14·3-20·8]; p=0·034), soft tissue sarcoma (28·3% [23·5-33·1] vs 36·5% [31·5-41·4]; p=0·021), and osteosarcoma (65·6% [60·6-70·6] vs 87·5% [84·1-91·0]; p&lt;0·0001). By contrast, the 15-year cumulative incidence of at least one grade 3-5 condition was higher (1990-99 vs 1970-79) for medulloblastoma or primitive neuroectodermal tumour (58·9% [54·4-63·3] vs 42·9% [34·9-50·9]; p=0·00060), and neuroblastoma (25·0% [21·8-28·2] vs 18·0% [14·5-21·6]; p=0·0045). Results were consistent with changes in treatment as a significant mediator of the association between diagnosis decade and risk of grade 3-5 chronic conditions for astrocytoma (HR per decade without treatment in the model = 0·77, 95% CI 0·64-0·92; HR with treatment in the model=0·89, 95% CI 0·72-1·11; p=0·0085) and Hodgkin lymphoma (HR without treatment=0·75, 95% CI 0·65-0·85; HR with treatment=0·91, 95% CI 0·73-1·12; p=0·024). Temporal decreases in 15-year cumulative incidence comparing survivors diagnosed 1970-79 to survivors diagnosed 1990-99 were noted for endocrinopathies (5·9% [5·3-6·4] vs 2·8% [2·5-3·2]; p&lt;0·0001), subsequent malignant neoplasms (2·7% [2·3-3·1] vs 1·9% [1·6-2·2]; p=0·0033), musculoskeletal conditions (5·8% [5·2-6·4] vs 3·3% [2·9-3·6]; p&lt;0·0001), and gastrointestinal conditions (2·3% [2·0-2·7] vs 1·5% [1·3-1·8]; p=0·00037), while hearing loss increased (3·0% [2·6-3·5] vs 5·7% [5·2-6·1]; p&lt;0·0001).</p>

<p><strong>INTERPRETATION: </strong>Our results suggest that more recently treated survivors of childhood cancer had improvements in health outcomes, consistent with efforts over the same time period to modify childhood cancer treatment regimens to maximise overall survival, while reducing risk of long-term adverse events. Continuing advances in cancer therapy offer promise of further reducing the risk of long-term adverse events in childhood cancer survivors. However, achieving long-term survival for childhood cancer continues to come at a cost for many survivors, emphasising the importance of long-term follow-up care for this population.</p>

<p><strong>FUNDING: </strong>National Cancer Institute and the American Lebanese-Syrian Associated Charities.</p>

10.1016/S1470-2045(18)30537-0

Lancet Oncol.

30416076