First name
Yutaka
Last name
Yasui

Title

Development and validation of age-specific risk prediction models for primary ovarian insufficiency in long-term survivors of childhood cancer: a report from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study and St Jude Lifetime Cohort.

Year of Publication

2023

Number of Pages

Date Published

11/2023

ISSN Number

1474-5488

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Female survivors of childhood cancer are at risk for primary ovarian insufficiency (POI), defined as the cessation of gonadal function before the age of 40 years. We aimed to develop and validate models to predict age-specific POI risk among long-term survivors of childhood cancer.

METHODS: To develop models to predict age-specific POI risk for the ages of 21-40 years, we used data from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (CCSS). Female survivors aged 18 years or older at their latest follow-up, with self-reported menstrual history information and free of subsequent malignant neoplasms within 5 years of diagnosis, were included. We evaluated models that used algorithms based on statistical or machine learning to consider all predictors, including cancer treatments. Cross-validated prediction performance metrics (eg, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC]) were compared to select the best-performing models. For external validation of the models, we used data from 5-year survivors in the St Jude Lifetime Cohort (SJLIFE) with ovarian status clinically ascertained using hormone measurements (menopause defined by follicle stimulating hormone >30 mIU/mL and oestradiol

FINDINGS: 7891 female CCSS survivors (922 with POI) were included in the development of the POI risk prediction model, and 1349 female SJLIFE survivors (101 with POI) were included in the validation study. Median follow-up from cancer diagnosis was 23·7 years (IQR 18·3-30·0) in CCSS and 15·1 years (10·4-22·9) in SJLIFE. Between the ages of 21 and 40 years, POI prevalence increased from 7·9% (95% CI 7·3-8·5) to 18·6% (17·3-20·0) in CCSS and 7·3% (5·8-8·9) to 14·9% (11·6-19·1) in SJLIFE. Age-specific logistic regression models considering ovarian radiation dosimetry or prescribed pelvic and abdominal radiation dose, along with individual chemotherapy predictors, performed well in CCSS. In the SJLIFE validation, the prescribed radiation dose model performed well (AUROC 0·88-0·95), as did a simpler model that considered any exposures to pelvic or abdominal radiotherapy or alkylators (0·82-0·90). Addition of the polygenic risk predictor significantly improved the average positive predictive value (from 0·76 [95% CI 0·63-0·89] to 0·87 [0·80-0·94]; p=0·029) among CCSS survivors treated with ovarian radiation and chemotherapy.

INTERPRETATION: POI risk prediction models using treatment information showed robust prediction performance in adult survivors of childhood cancer.

FUNDING: Canadian Institutes of Health Research, US National Cancer Institute.

DOI

10.1016/S1470-2045(23)00510-7

Alternate Title

Lancet Oncol

PMID

37972608
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No
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Title

Late Health Outcomes Among Survivors of Wilms Tumor Diagnosed Over Three Decades: A Report From the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study.

Year of Publication

2023

Number of Pages

2638-2650

Date Published

05/2023

ISSN Number

1527-7755

Abstract

PURPOSE: To evaluate long-term morbidity and mortality among unilateral, nonsyndromic Wilms tumor (WT) survivors according to conventional treatment regimens.

METHODS: Cumulative incidence of late mortality (≥ 5 years from diagnosis) and chronic health conditions (CHCs) were evaluated in WT survivors from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study. Outcomes were evaluated by treatment, including nephrectomy combined with vincristine and actinomycin D (VA), VA + doxorubicin + abdominal radiotherapy (VAD + ART), VAD + ART + whole lung radiotherapy, or receipt of ≥ 4 chemotherapy agents.

RESULTS: Among 2,008 unilateral WT survivors, 142 deaths occurred (standardized mortality ratio, 2.9, 95% CI, 2.5 to 3.5; 35-year cumulative incidence of death, 7.8%, 95% CI, 6.3 to 9.2). The 35-year cumulative incidence of any grade 3-5 CHC was 34.1% (95% CI, 30.7 to 37.5; rate ratio [RR] compared with siblings 3.0, 95% CI, 2.6 to 3.5). Survivors treated with VA alone had comparable risk for all-cause late mortality relative to the general population (standardized mortality ratio, 1.0; 95% CI, 0.5 to 1.7) and modestly increased risk for grade 3-5 CHCs compared with siblings (RR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.1 to 2.0), but remained at increased risk for intestinal obstruction (RR, 9.4; 95% CI, 3.9 to 22.2) and kidney failure (RR, 11.9; 95% CI, 4.2 to 33.6). Magnitudes of risk for grade 3-5 CHCs, including intestinal obstruction, kidney failure, premature ovarian insufficiency, and heart failure, increased by treatment group intensity.

CONCLUSION: With approximately 40% of patients with newly diagnosed WT currently treated with VA alone, the burden of late mortality/morbidity in future decades is projected to be lower than that for survivors from earlier eras. Nevertheless, the risk of late effects such as intestinal obstruction and kidney failure was elevated across all treatment groups, and there was a dose-dependent increase in risk for all grade 3-5 CHCs by treatment group intensity.

DOI

10.1200/JCO.22.02111

Alternate Title

J Clin Oncol

PMID

36693221
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No
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Title

Late Health Outcomes Among Survivors of Wilms Tumor Diagnosed Over Three Decades: A Report From the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study.

Year of Publication

2023

Number of Pages

JCO2202111

Date Published

01/2023

ISSN Number

1527-7755

Abstract

PURPOSE: To evaluate long-term morbidity and mortality among unilateral, nonsyndromic Wilms tumor (WT) survivors according to conventional treatment regimens.

METHODS: Cumulative incidence of late mortality (≥ 5 years from diagnosis) and chronic health conditions (CHCs) were evaluated in WT survivors from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study. Outcomes were evaluated by treatment, including nephrectomy combined with vincristine and actinomycin D (VA), VA + doxorubicin + abdominal radiotherapy (VAD + ART), VAD + ART + whole lung radiotherapy, or receipt of ≥ 4 chemotherapy agents.

RESULTS: Among 2,008 unilateral WT survivors, 142 deaths occurred (standardized mortality ratio, 2.9, 95% CI, 2.5 to 3.5; 35-year cumulative incidence of death, 7.8%, 95% CI, 6.3 to 9.2). The 35-year cumulative incidence of any grade 3-5 CHC was 34.1% (95% CI, 30.7 to 37.5; rate ratio [RR] compared with siblings 3.0, 95% CI, 2.6 to 3.5). Survivors treated with VA alone had comparable risk for all-cause late mortality relative to the general population (standardized mortality ratio, 1.0; 95% CI, 0.5 to 1.7) and modestly increased risk for grade 3-5 CHCs compared with siblings (RR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.1 to 2.0), but remained at increased risk for intestinal obstruction (RR, 9.4; 95% CI, 3.9 to 22.2) and kidney failure (RR, 11.9; 95% CI, 4.2 to 33.6). Magnitudes of risk for grade 3-5 CHCs, including intestinal obstruction, kidney failure, premature ovarian insufficiency, and heart failure, increased by treatment group intensity.

CONCLUSION: With approximately 40% of patients with newly diagnosed WT currently treated with VA alone, the burden of late mortality/morbidity in future decades is projected to be lower than that for survivors from earlier eras. Nevertheless, the risk of late effects such as intestinal obstruction and kidney failure was elevated across all treatment groups, and there was a dose-dependent increase in risk for all grade 3-5 CHCs by treatment group intensity.

DOI

10.1200/JCO.22.02111

Alternate Title

J Clin Oncol

PMID

36693221
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Title

Predicting acute ovarian failure in female survivors of childhood cancer: a cohort study in the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (CCSS) and the St Jude Lifetime Cohort (SJLIFE).

Year of Publication

2020

Number of Pages

Date Published

2020 Feb 14

ISSN Number

1474-5488

Abstract

<p><strong>BACKGROUND: </strong>Cancer treatment can cause gonadal impairment. Acute ovarian failure is defined as the permanent loss of ovarian function within 5 years of cancer diagnosis. We aimed to develop and validate risk prediction tools to provide accurate clinical guidance for paediatric patients with cancer.</p>

<p><strong>METHODS: </strong>In this cohort study, prediction models of acute ovarian failure risk were developed using eligible female US and Canadian participants in the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (CCSS) cohort and validated in the St Jude Lifetime Cohort (SJLIFE) Study. 5-year survivors from the CCSS cohort were included if they were at least 18 years old at their most recent follow-up and had complete treatment exposure and adequate menstrual history (including age at menarche, current menstrual status, age at last menstruation, and menopausal aetiology) information available. Participants in the SJLIFE cohort were at least 10-year survivors. Participants were excluded from the prediction analysis if they had an ovarian hormone deficiency, had missing exposure information, or had indeterminate ovarian status. The outcome of acute ovarian failure was defined as permanent loss of ovarian function within 5 years of cancer diagnosis or no menarche after cancer treatment by the age of 18 years. Logistic regression, random forest, and support vector machines were used as candidate methods to develop the risk prediction models in the CCSS cohort. Prediction performance was evaluated internally (in the CCSS cohort) and externally (in the SJLIFE cohort) using the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the precision-recall curve (average precision [AP; average positive predictive value]).</p>

<p><strong>FINDINGS: </strong>Data from the CCSS cohort were collected for participants followed up between Nov 3, 1992, and Nov 25, 2016, and from the SJLIFE cohort for participants followed up between Oct 17, 2007, and April 16, 2012. Of 11 336 female CCSS participants, 5886 (51·9%) met all inclusion criteria for analysis. 1644 participants were identified from the SJLIFE cohort, of whom 875 (53·2%) were eligible for analysis. 353 (6·0%) of analysed CCSS participants and 50 (5·7%) of analysed SJLIFE participants had acute ovarian failure. The overall median follow-up for the CCSS cohort was 23·9 years (IQR 20·4-27·9), and for SJLIFE it was 23·9 years (19·0-30·0). The three candidate methods (logistic regression, random forest, and support vector machines) yielded similar results, and a prescribed dose model with abdominal and pelvic radiation doses and an ovarian dose model with ovarian radiation dosimetry using logistic regression were selected. Common predictors in both models were history of haematopoietic stem-cell transplantation, cumulative alkylating drug dose, and an interaction between age at cancer diagnosis and haematopoietic stem-cell transplant. External validation of the model in the SJLIFE cohort produced an estimated AUC of 0·94 (95% CI 0·90-0·98) and AP of 0·68 (95% CI 0·53-0·81) for the ovarian dose model, and AUC of 0·96 (0·94-0·97) and AP of 0·46 (0·34-0·61) for the prescribed dose model. Based on these models, an online risk calculator has been developed for clinical use.</p>

<p><strong>INTERPRETATION: </strong>Both acute ovarian failure risk prediction models performed well. The ovarian dose model is preferred if ovarian radiation dosimetry is available. The models, along with the online risk calculator, could help clinical discussions regarding the need for fertility preservation interventions in girls and young women newly diagnosed with cancer.</p>

<p><strong>FUNDING: </strong>Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Women and Children's Health Research Institute, National Cancer Institute, and American Lebanese Syrian Associated Charities.</p>

DOI

10.1016/S1470-2045(19)30818-6

Alternate Title

Lancet Oncol.

PMID

32066539
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Title

Temporal patterns in the risk of chronic health conditions in survivors of childhood cancer diagnosed 1970-99: a report from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study cohort.

Year of Publication

2018

Number of Pages

Date Published

2018 Nov 08

ISSN Number

1474-5488

Abstract

<p><strong>BACKGROUND: </strong>Treatments for childhood cancer have evolved over the past 50 years, with the goal of maximising the proportion of patients who achieve long-term survival, while minimising the adverse effects of therapy. We aimed to assess incidence patterns of serious chronic health conditions in long-term survivors of childhood cancer across three decades of diagnosis and treatment.</p>

<p><strong>METHODS: </strong>We used data from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study, a retrospective cohort with longitudinal follow-up of 5-year survivors of common childhood cancers (leukaemia, tumours of the CNS, Hodgkin lymphoma, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, Wilms tumour, neuroblastoma, soft tissue sarcoma, or bone tumours) who were diagnosed before the age of 21 years and from 1970 to 1999 in North America. We examined the cumulative incidence of severe to fatal chronic health conditions occurring up to 20 years post-diagnosis among survivors, compared by diagnosis decade. We used multivariable regression models to estimate hazard ratios per diagnosis decade, and we added treatment variables to assess whether treatment changes attenuated associations between diagnosis decade and chronic disease risk.</p>

<p><strong>FINDINGS: </strong>Among 23 601 survivors with a median follow-up of 21 years (IQR 15-25), the 20-year cumulative incidence of at least one grade 3-5 chronic condition decreased significantly from 33·2% (95% CI 32·0-34·3) in those diagnosed 1970-79 to 29·3% (28·4-30·2; p&lt;0·0001) in 1980-89, and 27·5% (26·4-28·6; p=0·012 vs 1980-89) in 1990-99. By comparison, the 20-year cumulative incidence of at least one grade 3-5 condition in 5051 siblings was 4·6% (95% CI 3·9-5·2). The 15-year cumulative incidence of at least one grade 3-5 condition was lower for survivors diagnosed 1990-99 compared with those diagnosed 1970-79 for Hodgkin lymphoma (17·7% [95% CI 15·0-20·5] vs 26·4% [23·8-29·1]; p&lt;0·0001), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (16·9% [14·0-19·7] vs 23·8% [19·9-27·7]; p=0.0053), astrocytoma (30·5% [27·8-33·2] vs 47·3% [42·9-51·7]; p&lt;0·0001), Wilms tumour (11·9% [9·5-14·3] vs 17·6% [14·3-20·8]; p=0·034), soft tissue sarcoma (28·3% [23·5-33·1] vs 36·5% [31·5-41·4]; p=0·021), and osteosarcoma (65·6% [60·6-70·6] vs 87·5% [84·1-91·0]; p&lt;0·0001). By contrast, the 15-year cumulative incidence of at least one grade 3-5 condition was higher (1990-99 vs 1970-79) for medulloblastoma or primitive neuroectodermal tumour (58·9% [54·4-63·3] vs 42·9% [34·9-50·9]; p=0·00060), and neuroblastoma (25·0% [21·8-28·2] vs 18·0% [14·5-21·6]; p=0·0045). Results were consistent with changes in treatment as a significant mediator of the association between diagnosis decade and risk of grade 3-5 chronic conditions for astrocytoma (HR per decade without treatment in the model = 0·77, 95% CI 0·64-0·92; HR with treatment in the model=0·89, 95% CI 0·72-1·11; p=0·0085) and Hodgkin lymphoma (HR without treatment=0·75, 95% CI 0·65-0·85; HR with treatment=0·91, 95% CI 0·73-1·12; p=0·024). Temporal decreases in 15-year cumulative incidence comparing survivors diagnosed 1970-79 to survivors diagnosed 1990-99 were noted for endocrinopathies (5·9% [5·3-6·4] vs 2·8% [2·5-3·2]; p&lt;0·0001), subsequent malignant neoplasms (2·7% [2·3-3·1] vs 1·9% [1·6-2·2]; p=0·0033), musculoskeletal conditions (5·8% [5·2-6·4] vs 3·3% [2·9-3·6]; p&lt;0·0001), and gastrointestinal conditions (2·3% [2·0-2·7] vs 1·5% [1·3-1·8]; p=0·00037), while hearing loss increased (3·0% [2·6-3·5] vs 5·7% [5·2-6·1]; p&lt;0·0001).</p>

<p><strong>INTERPRETATION: </strong>Our results suggest that more recently treated survivors of childhood cancer had improvements in health outcomes, consistent with efforts over the same time period to modify childhood cancer treatment regimens to maximise overall survival, while reducing risk of long-term adverse events. Continuing advances in cancer therapy offer promise of further reducing the risk of long-term adverse events in childhood cancer survivors. However, achieving long-term survival for childhood cancer continues to come at a cost for many survivors, emphasising the importance of long-term follow-up care for this population.</p>

<p><strong>FUNDING: </strong>National Cancer Institute and the American Lebanese-Syrian Associated Charities.</p>

DOI

10.1016/S1470-2045(18)30537-0

Alternate Title

Lancet Oncol.

PMID

30416076
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Title

A High-risk Haplotype for Premature Menopause in Childhood Cancer Survivors Exposed to Gonadotoxic Therapy.

Year of Publication

2018

Number of Pages

Date Published

2018 Feb 08

ISSN Number

1460-2105

Abstract

<p><strong>Background: </strong>Childhood cancer survivors are at increased risk of therapy-related premature menopause (PM), with a cumulative incidence of 8.0%, but the contribution of genetic factors is unknown.</p>

<p><strong>Methods: </strong>Genome-wide association analyses were conducted to identify single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with clinically diagnosed PM (menopause &lt; 40 years) among 799 female survivors of childhood cancer participating in the St. Jude Lifetime Cohort Study (SJLIFE). Analyses were adjusted for cyclophosphamide equivalent dose of alkylating agents and ovarian radiotherapy (RT) dose (all P values two-sided). Replication was performed using self-reported PM in 1624 survivors participating in the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (CCSS).</p>

<p><strong>Results: </strong>PM was clinically diagnosed in 30 (3.8%) SJLIFE participants. Thirteen SNPs (70 kb region of chromosome 4q32.1) upstream of the Neuropeptide Receptor 2 gene (NPY2R) were associated with PM prevalence (minimum P = 3.3 × 10-7 for rs9999820, all P &lt; 10-5). Being a homozygous carrier of a haplotype formed by four of the 13 SNPs (seen in one in seven in the general population but more than 50% of SJLIFE clinically diagnosed PM) was associated with markedly elevated PM prevalence among survivors exposed to ovarian RT (odds ratio [OR] = 25.89, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 6.18 to 138.31, P = 8.2 × 10-6); this finding was replicated in an independent second cohort of CCSS in spite of its use of self-reported PM (OR = 3.97, 95% CI = 1.67 to 9.41, P = .002). Evidence from bioinformatics data suggests that the haplotype alters the regulation of NPY2R transcription, possibly affecting PM risk through neuroendocrine pathways.</p>

<p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The haplotype captures the majority of clinically diagnosed PM cases and, with further validation, may have clinical application in identifying the highest-risk survivors for PM for possible intervention by cryopreservation.</p>

DOI

10.1093/jnci/djx281

Alternate Title

J. Natl. Cancer Inst.

PMID

29432556
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