First name
Patricia
Last name
Kipnis

Title

Development and Validation of an Obstetric Comorbidity Risk Score for Clinical Use.

Year of Publication

2021

Number of Pages

507-515

Date Published

2021

ISSN Number

2688-4844

Abstract

<p><em><strong>Background: </strong></em>A comorbidity summary score may support early and systematic identification of women at high risk for adverse obstetric outcomes. The objective of this study was to conduct the initial development and validation of an obstetrics comorbidity risk score for automated implementation in the electronic health record (EHR) for clinical use. <em><strong>Methods: </strong></em>The score was developed and validated using EHR data for a retrospective cohort of pregnancies with delivery between 2010 and 2018 at Kaiser Permanente Northern California, an integrated health care system. The outcome used for model development consisted of adverse obstetric events from delivery hospitalization (<em>e.g.</em>, eclampsia, hemorrhage, death). Candidate predictors included maternal age, parity, multiple gestation, and any maternal diagnoses assigned in health care encounters in the 12 months before admission for delivery. We used penalized regression for variable selection, logistic regression to fit the model, and internal validation for model evaluation. We also evaluated prenatal model performance at 18 weeks of pregnancy. <em><strong>Results:</strong></em> The development cohort ( = 227,405 pregnancies) had an outcome rate of 3.8% and the validation cohort ( = 41,683) had an outcome rate of 2.9%. Of 276 candidate predictors, 37 were included in the final model. The final model had a validation c-statistic of 0.72 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.70-0.73). When evaluated at 18 weeks of pregnancy, discrimination was modestly diminished (c-statistic 0.68 [95% CI 0.67-0.70]). <em><strong>Conclusions:</strong></em> The obstetric comorbidity score demonstrated good discrimination for adverse obstetric outcomes. After additional appropriate validation, the score can be automated in the EHR to support early identification of high-risk women and assist efforts to ensure risk-appropriate maternal care.</p>

DOI

10.1089/whr.2021.0046

Alternate Title

Womens Health Rep (New Rochelle)

PMID

34841397

Title

A Quantitative, Risk-Based Approach to the Management of Neonatal Early-Onset Sepsis.

Year of Publication

2017

Date Published

2017 Feb 20

ISSN Number

2168-6211

Abstract

<p><strong>Importance: </strong>Current algorithms for management of neonatal early-onset sepsis (EOS) result in medical intervention for large numbers of uninfected infants. We developed multivariable prediction models for estimating the risk of EOS among late preterm and term infants based on objective data available at birth and the newborn's clinical status.</p>

<p><strong>Objectives: </strong>To examine the effect of neonatal EOS risk prediction models on sepsis evaluations and antibiotic use and assess their safety in a large integrated health care system.</p>

<p><strong>Design, Setting, and Participants: </strong>The study cohort includes 204 485 infants born at 35 weeks' gestation or later at a Kaiser Permanente Northern California hospital from January 1, 2010, through December 31, 2015. The study compared 3 periods when EOS management was based on (1) national recommended guidelines (baseline period [January 1, 2010, through November 31, 2012]), (2) multivariable estimates of sepsis risk at birth (learning period [December 1, 2012, through June 30, 2014]), and (3) the multivariable risk estimate combined with the infant's clinical condition in the first 24 hours after birth (EOS calculator period [July 1, 2014, through December 31, 2015]).</p>

<p><strong>Main Outcomes and Measures: </strong>The primary outcome was antibiotic administration in the first 24 hours. Secondary outcomes included blood culture use, antibiotic administration between 24 and 72 hours, clinical outcomes, and readmissions for EOS.</p>

<p><strong>Results: </strong>The study cohort included 204 485 infants born at 35 weeks' gestation or later: 95 343 in the baseline period (mean [SD] age, 39.4 [1.3] weeks; 46 651 male [51.0%]; 37 007 white, non-Hispanic [38.8%]), 52 881 in the learning period (mean [SD] age, 39.3 [1.3] weeks; 27 067 male [51.2%]; 20 175 white, non-Hispanic [38.2%]), and 56 261 in the EOS calculator period (mean [SD] age, 39.4 [1.3] weeks; 28 575 male [50.8%]; 20 484 white, non-Hispanic [36.4%]). In a comparison of the baseline period with the EOS calculator period, blood culture use decreased from 14.5% to 4.9% (adjusted difference, -7.7%; 95% CI, -13.1% to -2.4%). Empirical antibiotic administration in the first 24 hours decreased from 5.0% to 2.6% (adjusted difference, -1.8; 95% CI, -2.4% to -1.3%). No increase in antibiotic use occurred between 24 and 72 hours after birth; use decreased from 0.5% to 0.4% (adjusted difference, 0.0%; 95% CI, -0.1% to 0.2%). The incidence of culture-confirmed EOS was similar during the 3 periods (0.3% in the baseline period, 0.3% in the learning period, and 0.2% in the EOS calculator period). Readmissions for EOS (within 7 days of birth) were rare in all periods (5.2 per 100 000 births in the baseline period, 1.9 per 100 000 births in the learning period, and 5.3 per 100 000 births in the EOS calculator period) and did not differ statistically (P = .70). Incidence of adverse clinical outcomes, including need for inotropes, mechanical ventilation, meningitis, and death, was unchanged after introduction of the EOS calculator.</p>

<p><strong>Conclusions and Relevance: </strong>Clinical care algorithms based on individual infant estimates of EOS risk derived from a multivariable risk prediction model reduced the proportion of newborns undergoing laboratory testing and receiving empirical antibiotic treatment without apparent adverse effects.</p>

DOI

10.1001/jamapediatrics.2016.4678

Alternate Title

JAMA Pediatr

PMID

28241253

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