SARS-CoV-2 variants associated with vaccine breakthrough in the Delaware Valley through summer 2021.

2021

2021 Oct 20

<p>The severe acute respiratory coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the cause of the global outbreak of COVID-19. Evidence suggests that the virus is evolving to allow efficient spread through the human population, including vaccinated individuals. Here we report a study of viral variants from surveillance of the Delaware Valley, including the city of Philadelphia, and variants infecting vaccinated subjects. We sequenced and analyzed complete viral genomes from 2621 surveillance samples from March 2020 to September 2021 and compared them to genome sequences from 159 vaccine breakthroughs. In the early spring of 2020, all detected variants were of the B.1 and closely related lineages. A mixture of lineages followed, notably including B.1.243 followed by B.1.1.7 (alpha), with other lineages present at lower levels. Later isolations were dominated by B.1.617.2 (delta) and other delta lineages; delta was the exclusive variant present by the last time sampled. To investigate whether any variants appeared preferentially in vaccine breakthroughs, we devised a model based on Bayesian autoregressive moving average logistic multinomial regression to allow rigorous comparison. This revealed that B.1.617.2 (delta) showed three-fold enrichment in vaccine breakthrough cases (odds ratio of 3; 95% credible interval 0.89-11). Viral point substitutions could also be associated with vaccine breakthroughs, notably the N501Y substitution found in the alpha, beta and gamma variants (odds ratio 2.04; 95% credible interval of 1.25-3.18). This study thus provides a detailed picture of viral evolution in the Delaware Valley and a geographically matched analysis of vaccine breakthroughs; it also introduces a rigorous statistical approach to interrogating enrichment of viral variants.</p>

<p><strong>Importance: </strong>SARS-CoV-2 vaccination is highly effective at reducing viral infection, hospitalization and death. However, vaccine breakthrough infections have been widely observed, raising the question of whether particular viral variants or viral mutations are associated with breakthrough. Here we report analysis of 2621 surveillance isolates from xsxpeople diagnosed with COVID-19 in the Delaware Valley in South Eastern Pennsylvania, allowing rigorous comparison to 159 vaccine breakthrough case specimens. Our best estimate is a three-fold enrichment for some lineages of delta among breakthroughs, and enrichment of a notable spike substitution, N501Y. We introduce statistical methods that should be widely useful for evaluating vaccine breakthroughs and other viral phenotypes.</p>

10.1101/2021.10.18.21264623

medRxiv

34704098

SARS-CoV-2 Variants Associated with Vaccine Breakthrough in the Delaware Valley through Summer 2021.

2022

e0378821

2022 Feb 08

2150-7511

<p>The severe acute respiratory coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the cause of the global outbreak of COVID-19. Evidence suggests that the virus is evolving to allow efficient spread through the human population, including vaccinated individuals. Here, we report a study of viral variants from surveillance of the Delaware Valley, including the city of Philadelphia, and variants infecting vaccinated subjects. We sequenced and analyzed complete viral genomes from 2621 surveillance samples from March 2020 to September 2021 and compared them to genome sequences from 159 vaccine breakthroughs. In the early spring of 2020, all detected variants were of the B.1 and closely related lineages. A mixture of lineages followed, notably including B.1.243 followed by B.1.1.7 (alpha), with other lineages present at lower levels. Later isolations were dominated by B.1.617.2 (delta) and other delta lineages; delta was the exclusive variant present by the last time sampled. To investigate whether any variants appeared preferentially in vaccine breakthroughs, we devised a model based on Bayesian autoregressive moving average logistic multinomial regression to allow rigorous comparison. This revealed that B.1.617.2 (delta) showed 3-fold enrichment in vaccine breakthrough cases (odds ratio of 3; 95% credible interval 0.89-11). Viral point substitutions could also be associated with vaccine breakthroughs, notably the N501Y substitution found in the alpha, beta and gamma variants (odds ratio 2.04; 95% credible interval of1.25-3.18). This study thus overviews viral evolution and vaccine breakthroughs in the Delaware Valley and introduces a rigorous statistical approach to interrogating enrichment of breakthrough variants against a changing background. SARS-CoV-2 vaccination is highly effective at reducing viral infection, hospitalization and death. However, vaccine breakthrough infections have been widely observed, raising the question of whether particular viral variants or viral mutations are associated with breakthrough. Here, we report analysis of 2621 surveillance isolates from people diagnosed with COVID-19 in the Delaware Valley in southeastern Pennsylvania, allowing rigorous comparison to 159 vaccine breakthrough case specimens. Our best estimate is a 3-fold enrichment for some lineages of delta among breakthroughs, and enrichment of a notable spike substitution, N501Y. We introduce statistical methods that should be widely useful for evaluating vaccine breakthroughs and other viral phenotypes.</p>

10.1128/mbio.03788-21

mBio

34704098

Combined Biomarkers Predict Acute Mortality Among Critically Ill Patients With Suspected Sepsis.

2018

1106-1113

2018 Jul

1530-0293

<p><strong>OBJECTIVES: </strong>Sepsis is associated with high early and total in-hospital mortality. Despite recent revisions in the diagnostic criteria for sepsis that sought to improve predictive validity for mortality, it remains difficult to identify patients at greatest risk of death. We compared the utility of nine biomarkers to predict mortality in subjects with clinically suspected bacterial sepsis.</p>

<p><strong>DESIGN: </strong>Cohort study.</p>

<p><strong>SETTING: </strong>The medical and surgical ICUs at an academic medical center.</p>

<p><strong>SUBJECTS: </strong>We enrolled 139 subjects who met two or more systemic inflammatory response syndrome (systemic inflammatory response syndrome) criteria and received new broad-spectrum antibacterial therapy.</p>

<p><strong>INTERVENTIONS: </strong>We assayed nine biomarkers (α-2 macroglobulin, C-reactive protein, ferritin, fibrinogen, haptoglobin, procalcitonin, serum amyloid A, serum amyloid P, and tissue plasminogen activator) at onset of suspected sepsis and 24, 48, and 72 hours thereafter. We compared biomarkers between groups based on both 14-day and total in-hospital mortality and evaluated the predictive validity of single and paired biomarkers via area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.</p>

<p><strong>MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: </strong>Fourteen-day mortality was 12.9%, and total in-hospital mortality was 29.5%. Serum amyloid P was significantly lower (4/4 timepoints) and tissue plasminogen activator significantly higher (3/4 timepoints) in the 14-day mortality group, and the same pattern held for total in-hospital mortality (Wilcoxon p ≤ 0.046 for all timepoints). Serum amyloid P and tissue plasminogen activator demonstrated the best individual predictive performance for mortality, and combinations of biomarkers including serum amyloid P and tissue plasminogen activator achieved greater predictive performance (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve &gt; 0.76 for 14-d and 0.74 for total mortality).</p>

<p><strong>CONCLUSIONS: </strong>Combined biomarkers predict risk for 14-day and total mortality among subjects with suspected sepsis. Serum amyloid P and tissue plasminogen activator demonstrated the best discriminatory ability in this cohort.</p>

10.1097/CCM.0000000000003137

Crit. Care Med.

29912095

Combined biomarkers discriminate a low likelihood of bacterial infection among surgical intensive care unit patients with suspected sepsis.

2016

2016 Jan 8

1879-0070

<p>Among surgical intensive care unit (SICU) patients, it is difficult to distinguish bacterial sepsis from other causes of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS). Biomarkers have proven useful to identify the presence of bacterial infection. We enrolled a prospective cohort of 69 SICU patients with suspected sepsis and assayed the concentrations of 9 biomarkers (α-2 macroglobulin [A2M], C-reactive protein, ferritin, fibrinogen, haptoglobin, procalcitonin [PCT], serum amyloid A, serum amyloid P, and tissue plasminogen activator) at baseline, 24, 48, and 72hours. Forty-two patients (61%) had bacterial sepsis by chart review. A2M concentrations were significantly lower, and PCT concentrations were significantly higher in subjects with bacterial sepsis at 3 of 4 time points. Using optimal cutoff values, the combination of baseline A2M and 72-hour PCT achieved a negative predictive value of 75% (95% confidence interval, 54-96%). The combination of A2M and PCT discriminated bacterial sepsis from other SIRS among SICU patients with suspected sepsis.</p>

10.1016/j.diagmicrobio.2016.01.003

Diagn. Microbiol. Infect. Dis.

26971636